March 21, 2008

Nearly all the big name free agents, so lets take a look at who's moves have affected their draft strategy...

Atlanta Falcons
Big move: signed Michael Turner (Chargers)
The Falcons made arguably the biggest splash in the free agent market by signing Turner who will take over for Warrick Dunn at running back. The Falcons were one of the potential suitors for Darren McFadden, but with Turner in the fold their backfield is set.

Philadelphia Eagles
Big move: signed Asante Samuel (Patriots)
The Eagles may have overpaid for Samuel, but it still filled a need. They had already given up on Lito Sheppard leaving a major hole at cornerback. They were paying close attention to guys like Leodis McKelvin and Dominique Rogers-Cromartie, but the addition of Samuel satisfies that need.

Cleveland Browns
Big moves: traded for Shaun Rogers (Lions) and Corey Williams (Packers)
After all their offseason moves the Browns have just one pick in the NFL Draft. However, they've already filled their biggest holes on the defensive line. The Browns moves make them a legitimate contender in AFC.

New Orleans Saints
Big move: signed Randall Gay
Some may think Gay fills the Saints major hole at cornerback, but I'm not a big Gay guy. They've overspent on guys like Jason David and Mike McKenzie in the past and have yet to learn their lesson. Cornerback early in the draft is still a possibility in New Orleans.

March 15, 2008

We're right in the middle of the 2008 Pro Day schedule, so lets take a quick look at who's stock is soaring and who's is falling fast.

HOT PROSPECTS
Danny Woodhead RB Chadron State
The NCAA's all-time leading rusher wasn't much of a prospect until recently. He's a tough running back, but was assumed to lack the necessary athleticism and speed to take his game to the next level. After running a 4.38 forty at his pro day, he is now a legitimate prospect and could be a late round selection.

Vernon Gholston DE Ohio State
Gholston impressed scouts at the combine and continued at his pro day. He is a true workout warrior, impressing in nearly every workout. The number he has been putting up just aren't natural for a defensive end. He has the potential to be a truly dominant lineman at the next level.

Dustin Keller TE Purdue
Just like at the combine, Keller posted impressive numbers at his pro day. He has now solidified his spot at the top tight end on the board. No other tight end offers the size and strength and speed that Keller brings to the table. He will have an instant impact as a receiver at the next level.

Brian Witherspoon CB Stillman
Witherspoon has little future as a cornerback in the NFL, but he could make a splash as a return specialist. The success of guys like Devin Hester and Josh Cribbs have put a new emphasis on explosive return men and Witherspoon could be the next. His 4.28 time in the forty has all but assured him that he'll be a late round selection.

FALLING PROSPECTS
Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon
Stewart underwent surgery on his big toe and is expected to miss 4-6 months. Its a concerning development, but its a relatively easy surgery to bounce back from. It may cause teams to bump him down a few spots, but they have plenty of information on Stewart to already know what they're getting.

Kevin Smith RB Central Florida
Smith made the right call entering the draft early, but his gaudy statistics are about all he's living off of right now. His forty times have been less than impressive (4.53) and he just doesn't seem to have the basic athleticism to succeed at the next level.

Rafael Little RB Kentucky
Little underwent surgery on his torn ACL and is expected to miss 6 to 8 months. This is perhaps the most important of all the offseason injuries in this draft class. Little is an explosive running back that has a future as a 3rd down back or return specialist. He is nearly undraftable now that we just don't know how he'll recover from the surgery.

March 5, 2008

Well, its the end of an era in Green Bay. So what do the Packers do now?

Aaron Rogers has the unenviable task of replacing Favre. Odds are, he won't succeed. For one, he never should have been a first rounder. He benefited from entering the NFL in a down year for quarterbacks which allowed both him and Alex Smith to climb up the draft boards. But perhaps more importantly, quarterbacks that follow legends just don't pan out. Maybe its the pressure, maybe its just a coincidence. Whatever the reason, its true. Check out the list of some notable quarterbacks to follow up Hall of Famers:

Jim Kelly was replaced by ..... Todd Collins.
As good as Collins looked in 2007, he wasn't so great in 1997. After a 10-6 season and a playoff run in 1996 Jim Kelly called it quits. Collins replaced him and led the Bills to an unimpressive 6-10 season in '97.

Troy Aikman was replaced by ..... Quincy Carter.
Aikman led the Cowboys to the playoffs eight out of his last ten years in the league. After he left, they made the playoffs just once in the next size seasons. Quincy Carter was no help. He never threw more touchdowns than interceptions in a single season.

John Elway was replaced by ..... Brian Griese.
After a 14-2 season and Super Bowl victory, you would think the pieces were in place for Griese to at least lead the Broncos back to the playoffs following Elway's retirement. Instead, they went 6-10 and missed the playoffs.

Otto Graham was replaced by ..... Tommy O'Connell, George Ratterman and Babe Parilli
In ten seasons Graham was a ten-time All Pro and led the Browns to ten playoff appearances. After he retired, the Browns could even settle on a single quarterback to take over.

Terry Bradshaw was replaced by ..... Cliff Stoudt
Stoudt had started just one game prior to taking over for Bradshaw in 1983. He managed to lead the Steelers to a 10-6 record that season, starting 15 games. Yet only started four more games the rest of his career.

March 1, 2008

We're just two games into the free agent season and some big names have already changed teams. So lets take some time to review the best and worst moves so far...

Best Moves:
1) Jonathan Vilma LB Saints
Linebacker and cornerback were the Saints two biggest needs and the addressed one of them in a big way here. All it took was conditional draft choices, which will be determined based on Vilma's 2008 performance. Basically its a can't lose deal for the Saints.

2) Alan Faneca OG Jets
The Jets had some major issues on their offensive line this season, but they do have some young talent. Faneca brings solid veteran leadership and could team with Nick Mangold and D'Brickashaw Ferguson to give the Jets some stability and open up some holes for Thomas Jones.

3) Marcus Stroud DT Buffalo Bills
Another big name tackle with a change of scenery. The Bills have been trying desperately for three years to shore up their defensive line and they just can't get it together. Stroud instantly gives them credibility and gives their defense a huge boost.

4) Shaun Rodgers DT Browns
The Browns gave up a 3rd round pick and cornerback Leigh Bodden for the behemoth defensive tackle. Rodgers spent most of the past two years in Rod Marinelli's doghouse in Detroit, but when he's healthy and giving forth his best effort he's arguably the best tackle in football. Cleveland is the perfect place for him. Romeo Crennel is the ultimate players coach, and if anyone can get Rodgers back into his former dominant self, its Romeo.

5) Asante Samuel CB Eagles
This is one of the more hotly debated free agent signings. There are some that love Samuel, but I'm not crazy about the signing. He's a very good cornerback, but probably didn't deserve the money he got. Remember, he comes from the same defensive system that made Troy Brown look like a quality defensive back for a period of time. There is definitely a risk that he is just a system player.

6.) Corey Williams DT Browns
All of the sudden the Browns have a defensive line. Either Williams or Rodgers will move to defensive end, giving the Browns a very formidable defensive line. Its possible no team has made a bigger splash in free agency so far this season.

So who are the best players still out there?

1) Randy Moss - An obvious choice here. He's likely to remain with the Patriots, but don't rule out a team like the Packers or Cowboys stepping in and stealing him away. The bottom line is Moss will wants to win, but given the choice between a few playoff teams you have to believe he'll follow the money.

2) Michael Turner - Atlanta is making a hard push for Turner, which will have huge ramifications in the draft, meaning that Darren McFadden is no longer an option for the Falcons.

3) Marion Barber - He's a restricted free agent, meaning he's very likely to resign with Dallas, but don't count out someone stepping up and forking over the 1st and 3rd rounders.

February 23, 2008

I'll wait until the combine concludes before writing up a full assessment, but the early leader for the player that gained the most is Purdue Tight End Dustin Keller. Keller impressed with a 4.53 in the forty, at least .2 seconds faster than he was expected to run. Its an impressive time for anyone, but especially a tight end. Since 2000, the only true tight ends to post more impressive times were Greg Olsen and Vernon Davis. Both Davis and Olsen went on to be first rounders. This years tight end class goes at least 6 deep with guys that could be taken in first two rounds but lacks a clear choice at the top. On top of his 40 time, Keller looked smooth and athletic in receiving drills. He's a little undersized, but has the frame to bulk up and certainly has a future in the NFL. His performance firmly plants him at the top of the tight ends list with guys like John Carlson and Fred Davis.

Also making news at the combine as Jake Long, who impressed in workouts. He looked like the cream of the crop in terms of athleticism, but some still doubt his ability as a true left tackle, and I'm one of them. He led all tackles with 37 reps on the bench press and was fairly impressive in the forty. However, he seems to lack that elite athleticism that today's top left tackles have. By the time everyone has worked out, I think Ryan Clady (who is a true left tackle) will be neck in neck with Long as the top two tackles available and could easily be the first tackle off the board.

February 8, 2008
Kellen Winslow never ceases to amaze. His latest rant is calling for the Browns to give him a new contract. At a press conference at the Pro Bowl Winslow stated "They have to guard me kind of like a wide receiver so, you know, yeah, gotta to get that new money." Apparently his current contact, which will earn him $4 million in 2008, $4.9 million in 2009 and $4.75 million in 2010, isn't enough. Winslow had a big year, earning him a trip to the Pro Bowl, but the bottom line is he's played 34 games out of a possible 64 since coming into the league in 2004. Not exactly the production that warrants a contract extension.
February 7, 2008

The DraftAce stock watch is updated. Check it out.

The Eagles placed the franchise tag on tight end L.J Smith today. Interesting move; its rare to see a tight end get the franchise tag and even more rare for a guy who caught just 22 passes and 1 touchdown a season ago. On top of that, in the past year Smith has suffered a sprained knee, a pulled groin and had surgery to repair a sports hernia. The franchise tag means that Smith will a one year contract worth the average of the salaries of the five highest paid tight ends last season. This is an odd move by the Eagles. They likely wouldn't have missed Smith all that much had he left, and its hard to believe there would have been a bidding war for his services if he hit the open market.

The 2008 Scouting Combine list has been released.

January 30, 2008
The position that is the most wide open at this point is wide receiver. Depending on where you go from draft boards you'll find anyone from Mario Manningham to Malcolm Kelly to DeSean Jackson to Limas Sweed to James Hardy as the top guy on the board. Unfortunately the depth at the position is bad news for most teams. None of them look like sure things. No one deserves to be in the top ten, but at least seven different receivers could go in the first round. This draft class is looking more and more like the 2004 draft which also saw 7 receivers go in the first round. Larry Fitzgerald,
January 29 , 2008

Time to answer some e-mails...

  • Where's Steve Slaton in your mock draft? He's easily be biggest playmaker next to Darren McFadden. - Mike
    • Well Mike, Slaton had a great college career but his game just doesn't translate to the next level. He is slightly undersized but the bigger concern is his style. Some small running backs know how to take a hit; that's never been Slaton's game. He a shifty back that avoids hits. Slaton is the opposite of a Darren McFadden, he runs around guys rather than through them. He shouldn't fall much further than the 3rd round, but no one will draft him believing his is their future franchise running back.
  • With three quarterbacks projected to go in the first round, is this the best quarterback class we've seen in a while? - anonymous
    • Quite frankly, not even close. Its sometimes hard to go back and compare classes, because we know how others played out, so yo have to try to only compare the players stock entering the draft. If you were to combine the last three years, here's how I would rank the top 5:
      1. Matt Leinart (2006)
      2. Brady Quinn (2007)
      3. Jay Cutler (2006)
      4. Andre Woodson (2008)
      5. JaMarcus Russell (2007)
    • Remember, this is only a ranking based off of how I graded them entering the draft. The top three I had graded as franchise quarterbacks. No one from this draft is in that same class. Just because three quarterbacks are considered first rounders doesn't mean that this is a better class than last year's which had two. The number of quarterbacks that get drafted in the first round is almost always the same. You will have two or three every year. If no one stands out, teams will reach. Just look at the 2005 draft. Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers wouldn't even be first rounders this year, but both were considered by the 49ers for the first overall pick. This year lacks an elite quarterback, but there are a few that have shown potential. That, coupled with at least 5 teams that will seriously consider a QB in the first round, will mean that Woodson, Brohm and Ryan could all go higher than they deserve.

 

 


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