Dec. 1, 2009

Quarterback Rankings Through Week 12

125 attempts were used as the minumum qualifier again.

Minimal changes at the top this week, with one big exception. Vince Young debuts at No. 7, a truly amazing feat for a guy who's career looked like it was all but over just a few weeks ago as he rode the bench for a 0-6 team. Young still isn't a great pocket passer, but he has improved immensely with his decision making. He isn't an elite quarterback yet, but he has been very efficient and while letting Chris Johnson do the hard work.

Josh Freeman also debuts this week at No. 25. Not a great spot, but he's the top rookie (No. 29 Sanchez, No. 30 Stafford). Like most rookies his Att/Int and Att/Sack numbers are well below average, but those numbers will improve with time. He's off to a promising start.

I'd also like to compare the top five of my system to the tradition QB Ratings, specifically to point out the differences in the top three.

Rk Current DraftAce
1 Drew Brees Brett Favre
2 Brett Favre Peyton Manning
3 Aaron Rodgers Drew Brees
4 Peyton Manning Tom Brady
5 Phillip Rivers Phillip Rivers

Now don't get me wrong, Aaron Rodgers is having a fine season. But you simply cannot make the argument that he's been better than Petyon Manning. Brees, Manning and Favre could be interchangable in any of the top three slots - I'll listen to an arguement for any of the three. But Rodgers just doesn't fit into that conversation.

Nov. 24, 2009

Quarterback Rankings Through Week 11

Here are the updated quarterback rankings. Once again I used 125 attempts as the minimum. Two new quarterbacks qualified this week - Alex Smith and Brady Quinn. Thanks to Sunday's performance Quinn doesn't come in dead last, as he likely would have prior to a big game against the Lions.

While Quinn ranks slightly ahead of Derek Anderson (thanks in large part to his TD/Att ratio which is inflated due to Sunday's game) one difference between the two that really stands out is their Att/Sack ratio.

Some have argued that sacks shouldn't be included because they are a reflection of the offensive line, and not the quarterback. If that is the case, then why the large discrepancy between Quinn and Anderson. The Browns offensive line has remained intact all season, meaning there should be a negligible difference between the two. Yet Quinn is being sacked a significantly greater rate.

Clearly a quarterback does not have full control over his sack numbers. But then again, he doesn't have full control over any of his numbers - his wide receivers play a role as well.



Nov. 17, 2009

Quarterback Ratings Through Week 10

Here are the updated QB Ratings through Week 10. If you've missed the explanation of the formula, here you go.

Not too many changes to the rankings, but I did raise the minimum attempts from 100 to 125 this week. That eliminated Seneca Wallace and Byron Leftwich from the ratings, which explains why a number of players are the bottom of the rankings improves by one or two spots.

The biggest winner of the week was Kurt Warner. By completing over 75 pct of his passes for 340 yards, two touchdowns and no sacks or interceptions, he improves in all five categories. If it weren't for his 5-interception game earlier this season, he could potentially be in the top five.

The quarterback that best demonstrates why I think the DraftAce Rating works better is Kyle Orton. In the current QB Rating system Orton ranks 12th, just behind Warner, Romo and McNabb. All three have thrown for more yards and touchdowns than Orton - the reason for their higher ratings - but have they really been the better quarterbacks?

Orton isn't the best quarterback in the league, but he has run his offense as efficiciently as any quarterback in the league this year. Yes, the Broncos are a sinking ship, but Orton continues to put his team in position to win. Even in last week's loss he completed over 60 pct of his passes for two touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Saying that he's the 12th best quarterback in the league is just unfair. Here's how he compares in raw stats to the three quarterbacks ahead of him.

As I pointed out, Orton does have fewer touchdowns and yards/attempt than the other three. But that's just part of what makes a good quarterback. He's completing a higher percentage of passes than McNabb and Romo and has thrown fewer interceptions than Romo and Warner. Additionally, he has been sacked less than all three. Yes, sacks aren't always the quarterbacks fault - but Warner's imobility, and McNabb's and Romo's indecisiveness have certainly led to a number of sacks that fall solely on their shoulders. Of the group, I would argue that Orton has the most complete stat line.

Nov. 10, 2009

Quarterback Ratings Through Week 9

Here are this week's quarterback ratings. If you missed the initial post on the ratings, here it is.

We're halfway through the season, so you would think the rankings would essentially be set, but one bad game can still derail a quarterback's ranking in this system. Take Kyle Orton for example. Orton was solidly in the No. 2 position last week, and deservedly so. After a rough game against Pittsburgh, however, he's fallen to No. 12.

I essentially agree with the rankings but there is one player that needs to be explained. Byron Leftwich comes in at No. 11, which sounds a little high for a guy who lost his job awhile ago. Part of the reason is he has a relatively small sample size compared to the other quarterback. I kept the cut off at 100 pass attempts this week to include as many quarterbacks as possible. That number will drop soon though, possibly next week, eliminating Leftwich from the standings.

Brett Favre and Ben Roethlisberger were the biggest winners this past week. Although, Favre's ascent to No. 2 was due solely to the fact that a number of players ahead of him fell in the rankings. This is made possible by the fact that quarterbacks are ranked in comparison to all others. As one player's stats change, everyone rankings are adjusted accordingly. This is a stark contrast to the current QB Rating system that only compares a player to himself.

Here are the rankings of the 35 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts this season.



Nov. 4, 2009

DraftAce Quarterback Ratings Through Week 8

The NFL Quarterback Ratings are the single most confusing statistic in all of sports. None of baseball's SABRmetric stats can combare to insanity that is the QB Rating. We know that it is intended to rank quarterbacks, but no one really knows what goes into the formula. And for that matter, no one really cares. It has long been considered a fradulent stat.

I have toyed around with an alternative to the QB Rating in the past, and I think I've finally settled on a formula that I like.

One of the biggest flaws in the current QB Rating is that it does not adequately compare the quarterbacks - which is the basic purpose of the system. The current design of the formula is better suited to compare quarterbacks of all eras on an even playing field. However, that isn't what we ultimately want it to do.

The most common use of the QB Rating is to compare quarterbacks in a given season. Is Peyton Manning having a better year than Drew Brees? The current QB Rating attempts to answer that question, but at no point does it ever actually compare Brees to Manning. Instead, it compares each quarterback to a predetermined set of numbers and gives each a score out of 158.3 (seriously, why 158.3?)

My new system was developed based on the premise that each quarterback should be compared to every other quarterback in the league. Instead of using a complex formula to determine a "perfect" quarterback, players are judged only based on how they compare to others in a given year (technically, it could also be extrapolated out over any number of years if desired).

The formula utilizes four basic statistics which I will outline below:

Completion Percentage - there's no real explanation needed for this one. Better quarterbacks have a higher completition percentage.

TD per Attempt - I'm not crazy about most touchdown statistics because they unfairly favor quarterbacks from pass-happy offenses or from teams with poor defenses that are forced to air it out. TD per attempt levels the playing field for all quarterbacks.

Interception Percentage - not a very common statistic, but I chose this rather than TD-Int ratio or total interceptions to even the playing field for all quarterbacks. For exmaple, Drew Brees is likely to throw more interceptions than David Garrard because he will have more attempts. But his interceptions percentage may be significantly lower.

Attempts per Sack - Sacks are often attributed to a weak offensive line but this is not always the case. Sacks can often be avoided and quarterbacks deserve to shoulder some of the blame. I anticipate some disagreeing with the inclusion of this stat, but I would argue that sacks are as much a stat for offensive lineman as touchdown passes are a stat for receivers. Both parties play a role in the outcome. Again, attempts per sacks rather than the total number evens the playing field. Quarterbacks that attempt more passes are likely to be sacked more, but its the percentage that really matters.

Yards per Attempt - I use yards per attempt rather than yards per completition because it is a better gauge of the effectiveness of the quarterback. A quarterback with a low completition percentage that frequently throws the ball downfield will still have a high Yds/Comp, but his Yds/Att will be significantly lower.

So those are the stats, now for how the formula is calculated:

For each statistic, quarterbacks are compared to the best quarterback in the league in that given category. For example, if Peyton Manning leads the league with a 72.1 competion percentage, each qualifying quarterback's completition percentage score will be his completition percentage divided by 72.1. (e.g. Drew Brees has a 65.0 comp pct, his score in this category will be 65.0/72.1). This allows for a maximum score of 1.00 in each category.

This is done for each category. Once those numbers are calculated they are added together and divded by four (since there are four categories). This will give us a number between .000 and 1.00 (I use three digits for the sake of showing as much difference as possible beween the quarterbacks).

Here are the ratings for this season through Week 9 (all quarterbacks with a minimum 100 pass attempts were included).

I prefer this formula for three reasons. One, I like how it actually compares players to each other. It gives you a better idea of the difference between quarterbacks on a level playing field. And two, it is infinitely easier to understand. A perfect score in this formula is 1.00 - doesn't get any more simple than that. And third, it allows you to easily see the components of the formula. As you can see in the table above, each quarterback's rating in each category is readily visible. This is a drastic change from the current QB Rating where you really have no idea what has led a quarterback to his rating.

Blog Archives

 


Google
 
All information on this site is copyright of DraftAce.com Any reproduction of any material on DraftAce.com is strictly prohibited. DraftAce.com is in no way affiliated with the NFL or NCAA or any other organization or website. All logos are copyright of their respective teams and the NFL or NCAA. For official information about the NFL and the teams visit NFL.com This is an independent, opinion based website.
Please contact webmaster@draftace.com with any questions.