Category: Draft Grades – 2012

Richardson expected to rejoin Browns next week

Cleveland Browns rookie running back Trent Richardson is expected to return to the practice field next week, according to Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

Richardson underwent arthroscopic knee surgery earlier this month, but the team is hopeful that he will be ready by opening weekend. In the meantime, Montario Hardesty has been handling the first-team duties, and has been backed up by veteran Brandon Jackson.

2012 Draft Grades

Are post-draft grades worthess? This time of year the cynics come out of the woodwork to say “you can’t grade a draft until three years  have gone by.” While there is definitely some truth to that statement, grading a draft class immediately after the fact is far from worthless. In fact the post-draft grades are crucial to the grading process down the line.

Consider this example, if Andrew Luck turns out to be the next Ryan Leaf, will the Colts receive a failing grade in three years? Those same cynics who criticize the post-draft grading may say yes, but it’s not that simple. Nearly every scout, coach and general manager in the league would have made the same selection and, as a result, the Colts post-draft grade of the selection receives high marks. No matter what happens down the road, this was the right decision. It would be difficult to ever give the Colts a failing grade for the selection of Luck, regardless of the outcome.

Consider another example, let’s say Mohamad Sanu (Bengals 3rd-round pick) and John Hughes (Browns 3rd-round pick) both turn into busts. Do the teams get the same grade in three years for these selections? If you only look at the draft from the perspective of what happened on the field, yes. But if you refer to the initial reaction of the selections, it’s not even close. Sanu was a consensus top 100 pick, and many teams had 3rd-round grades on him. If he fails, it doesn’t change the fact that it was a safe pick by the Bengals. A certain percentage of 3rd-round picks will turn into busts, even the highly-rated ones. John Hughes, on the other hand, received very few, if any, 3rd-round grades from other teams. The Browns reached to fill a need and if he fails to pan out, the Browns grade should be a reflection of their questionable decision.

So while these grades certainly will change in three years, they will also serve as a valuable tool for evaluating these draft classes in the future.

Click on a team’s logo for their draft grade.

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NFC East NFC North NFC South NFC West

Draft Grades: Seattle Seahawks

For the second consecutive year, the Seattle Seahawks whiffed in the 1st round and demonstrated a complete lack of understanding as to how to effectively use the draft to rebuild a franchise. While the Seahawks have some talent, they’re headed in the wrong direction.

I thought the selection of James Carpenter was bad last year, but Bruce Irvin may be worse. Not only was Irvin a fringe 1st-round prospect at best, but he’s a developmental prospect with serious character concerns. If the Seahawks wanted to gamble they should have selected Janoris Jenkins, who is at least NFL-ready in terms of his talent. Irvin will be effective as a situational pass rusher, but that’s not the type of player you target with the 15th selection.

Bobby Wagner was a nice 2nd-round value. He’ll likely back up Barrett Ruud in 2012 with a chance to take over the starting job in the future.

I like Russell Wilson a lot, but I’m not sure the 3rd round was the right place for the Seahawks to select him. He has all the tools necessary to have a long career as a backup, but his upside is somewhat limited. Considering the just signed Matt Flynn, the move is even more questionable.

I love the selection of Robert Turbin. His health is a concern, but if he can stay on the field he can push Marshawn Lynch for carries. In the 4th round he was a safe gamble.

Jaye Howard adds some depth to the defensive line, but was a reach in the 4th round. He’ll compete for a backup job and should make the final roster cuts.

Korey Toomer is a decent developmental prospect, but he’ll have plenty of competition at linebacker in Seattle. He definitely does not have a guaranteed roster spot.

Jeremy Lane is a nice developmental prospect. The Seahawks needed to add depth to the secondary and he had value in the 6th round.

I like the selection of Winston Guy. He’ll probably never develop into a starter, but he’ll back up Kam Chancellor at strong safety and immediately make a difference on special teams.

J.R. Sweezy played defensive tackle at N.C. State but will be converted to guard in Seattle. It’s tough to judge a player switching positions, but in the 7th round there’s no risk involved.

Greg Scruggs will compete with Jaye Howard and others for a backup job, but it’s tough to imagine both rookies surviving the final roster cuts.

Just like last year, the Seahawks whiffed in the 1st round but rebounded with some solid mid and late-round picks. They continue to add depth, but they won’t turn things around until the start to find the elite prospects in the early rounds.

Draft Grades: St. Louis Rams

The St. Louis Rams are in full rebuilding mode, and I wholeheartedly approve of their strategy to trade back and accumulate picks. My feelings on how they spent those picks, however, is a different story.

Michael Brockers isn’t going to make the type of difference that most Rams fans were hoping for from their 1st-round pick when the season ended. But he has a ton of potential and the Rams have more than enough time on their hands to wait for him to develop. By the time they’re ready to compete, he should be reaching his full potential.

Far too many teams approach the 2nd round as though it’s an opportunity to gamble without much risk, when in reality there are usually legitimate difference makers and 1st-round talents still on the board. The Rams did exactly this on Day 2 of the draft.

Brian Quick was huge reach at No. 33. He has the potential to develop into a quality possession receiver, but the Rams really needed to bring in a receiver who could help out Sam Bradford immediately, and Quick is definitely not that guy.

Janoris Jenkins obviously has the talent to be a star, but a rebuilding franchise like St. Louis is not the place for a player with serious off-field concerns. I’m just not sure the Rams coaching staff, front office and veteran players are equipped to handle an off-field project like this.

Isaiah Pead will help take the load of Steven Jackson’s shoulders, but he was a reach in the 2nd round. I don’t see him as a potential franchise back, which the Rams could have found earlier in this draft. Pead is a capable backup, but won’t take the reigns from Jackson once he’s ready to hang up the cleats.

Taking Jenkins was a risk, but pairing him with another rookie corner, Trumain Johnson, who also has serious off-field concerns was just plain stupid. Two young players who couldn’t stay out of trouble in college, now collecting NFL paychecks is a recipe for disaster.

Chris Givens is a deep threat, but that’s about it. He’ll contribute, and they definitely needed another weapon, but there were better receivers on the board in the 4thr ound.

Rokevious Watkins is an intriguing prospect. He has the size and strength to be a dominant interior run blocker, and is actually a decent athlete for his size. He could be a steal in the 5th round.

Greg Zuerlein was the top kicker on my board and actually received a 5th round grade. One of the reasons I like him is the fact that he should immediately be one of the most effective players on kickoffs in the league. He has a huge leg and should routinely force opponents to start from their own 20.

Aaron Brown adds some much-needed depth at linebacker. I was surprised they didn’t addressnz this position earlier than the 7th round, because Brown likely won’t give them the help, at least early on, that they really need.

Daryl Richardson has a legitimate shot to win the third-string running back job, but I have to wonder if the Rams may bring in another veteran. Starting the season with two rookies at the position isn’t ideal.

I have to give the Rams credit for trading back and accumulating picks, but I don’t think they added enough difference makers. The added depth will allow them to be more competitive in 2012, but they took too many risks and made too many reaches. Unfortunately, this probably wasn’t the franchise-altering draft that it had the potential to be.

Draft Grades: Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns hit a home run with their first selection… and it was all downhill from there. The Browns entered the draft with 13 picks – an opportunity to completely change the direction of this floundering franchise – but whiffed in such a way that it could cost Mike Holmgren and Tom Heckert their jobs in the not-so-distant future.

Even taking into consideration the somewhat questionable trade, Trent Richardson was a great selection at No 3. The Browns needed to land a can’t-miss prospect in the top 10, and Richardson was arguably the best on the board. He will be a star from day one.

If the Browns were looking to change the face of the franchise, the accomplished that by selecting Brandon Weeden. But it feels like a lateral move to me. Regardless of your opinion of Weeden, the Browns are going nowhere fast. Even if all goes as planned, they won’t be serious contenders until 2014, when Weeden will be 31 years old. I could understand a more established team gambling on Weeden, but the selection simply does not make sense for a franchise with a steep uphill climb just to enter the playoff discussion.

Mitchell Schwartz was a reach in the early 2nd round. At best, he’ll be an average starting right tackle, and that’s not worth the 37th overall selection. He’s essentially a younger Tony Pashos, who the Browns recently released.

John Hughes may have been the reach of the draft. The Browns have two above average starting defensive tackles, and plan to use Frostee Rucker as the three-technique in passing situations. So where does Hughes fit in? It’s hard to do worse than a reach that doesn’t even fill a need.

Travis Benjamin is a track star masquerading as a football player. He could have value as a return specialist, but the Browns already have Josh Cribbs, who is backed up by the more-than-capable Buster Skrine. At best, Benjamin develops into a decent 4th option who can stretch the field, but he was not worth the 100th overall selection.

James-Michael Johnson adds some much-needed depth at the linebacker position. He will likely back up D’Qwell Jackson, but could play any of the three spots in Cleveland’s 4-3 defense.

Ryan Miller adds some depth at guard and could push Shaun Lauvao or Jason Pinkston for playing time, both of whom are coming off disappointing seasons. Lauvao led all guards in sacks allowed and penalties in 2011.

Emmanuel Acho will compete for the backup weak-side linebacker job, and could actually see some playing time early due to Scott Fujita’s suspension.

Billy Winn was arguably the Browns best selection other than Richardson. I gave him a fringe 3rd/4th-round grade and had him rated significantly higher than John Hughes.

Tevin Wade will compete with Buster Skrine for the 4th cornerback job. Like Skrine, he’s undersized and his upside is limited to playing the nickel corner role.

Brad Smelley blocked for Richardson at Alabama, and the Browns reportedly called Richardson about him before making the selection. It’s not a bad decision, but the Browns drafted Owen Marecic in the 4th round last year and parted with Lawrence Vickers to make room for him. What does that say about their evaluation process if they’re willing to give up on Marecic after one year?

I fail to see how this draft class changed Cleveland’s direction in any meaningful way. They have a power running game and a rookie quarterback… is that any different than two years when their offense featured Peyton Hillis and Colt McCoy, who, at the time, was viewed as a promising young quarterback? This draft class, coupled with the strong drafts of their division rivals, cemented the Browns place in the AFC North cellar.