Category: Broncos

Denver Broncos 2019 Team Needs

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John Elway has won Super Bowls as both a player and an executive in Denver, and that’s bought him an extremely long leash. But it’s time to start seriously questioning his ability to run an organization. Other than convincing a Hall of Famer quarterback to join the team, what has he really accomplished?

Elway has tried every possible means of finding a quarterback: the draft (Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch), free agency (Case Keenum) and now a trade for Joe Flacco.

The rest of the roster has remained relatively stable, but with one flop after another at quarterback, Elway needs to be on the hot seat. And this offseason could potentially be his last chance. If he can’t finally fix the offense, it’s time for Denver to move on.

Here’s a look at the positions Elway and his staff should focus on this offseason to get the Broncos pointed in the right direction again.

 

Quarterback

The acquisition of Joe Flacco isn’t a solution, but it probably did buy Elway some more time with ownership. He can sell them on the addition of a former Super Bowl MVP, even if we’ve seen more than enough evidence that Flacco’s historic playoff run in 2012 was an outlier in his career.

I wrote more in depth on the Flacco acquisition here, but the gist of it is this: it’s not exactly clear that he’s an upgrade over Keenum.

Even if Flacco does stabilize the Broncos’ quarterback play, he probably isn’t here for the long haul. None of his contract in Denver is guaranteed, which means the Broncos are likely just renting him for the year before cutting him loose. Although he is under contract through 2021, so they’ll have the option to keep him if he exceeds expectations.

Since Flacco is just a short-term fix, the Broncos are still in the mix for quarterbacks in the draft. Elway obviously has a thing for immobile pocket passers who can throw downfield, which eliminates Kyler Murray from the conversation. Dwayne Haskins and Drew Lock are the most obvious fits, and both could potentially be first-round options.

 

Offensive Line

The Broncos offensive line allowed Keenum to be pressured on 30.9 percent of his dropbacks a season ago, the fifth highest rate in the league according to Sports Info Solutions.

To make matters worse, right tackle Jared Veldheer and center Matt Paradis are unrestricted free agents. That leaves left tackle Garrett Bolles as the only stable lineman under contract.

According to Sports Info Solutions, Paradis had the sixth lowest blown block rate among the 40 centers with at least 200 snaps in 2018. Attempting to re-sign him should be a priority this offseason.

Left guard Ronald Leary is also under contract, but he’s coming off a shaky season shortened by an ACL tear. He will likely return to his role, but the team could save $7.5M by cutting him, making him a cap casualty candidate.

Given Flacco’s immobility and Elway’s tendency to target that type of quarterback, the Broncos should invest a considerable amount of resources into the offensive line this offseason. Re-signing Paradis would be a start, but finding upgrades at right tackle and both guard positions should be on the radar screen as well.

 

Cornerback

Bradley Roby is a free agent, but he’s coming off a rough year and the team is probably ready to move on. According to Sports Info Solutions, Roby allowed 11.2 yards per target in man coverage, the third worst rate in the league.

Denver used man coverage at the second highest rate in the league under Vance Joseph last season, but new head coach Vic Fangio also slightly favors man coverage. The Bears used man coverage at the 11th highest rate, according to SIS.

With those numbers in mind, Roby might not be an ideal fit in Denver anymore.

In limited playing time, 2018 third-round pick Isaac Yiadom allowed just 6.6 yards per target in man coverage. It’s possibly Yiadom is ready to step into Roby’s shoes. But with Tramaine Brock also hitting free agency, the Broncos will still need to add depth in the secondary.

 

Tight End

Former third-round pick Jeff Heuerman never panned out and hits free agency this offseason. Jake Butt, who the Broncos had high hopes for after snagging in the 2017 draft, also looks like a bust due to injuries. Butt suffered his third ACL tear this season. He’ll be given a chance to compete if he’s healthy in time for training camp, but the team can’t count on him at this point.

Flacco has always had success targeting tight ends in Baltimore, so it would make sense for Denver to provide him a weapon at the position.

It’s a deep draft class at the position, so Denver could potentially add a weapon on draft day. However, with such glaring holes at quarterback and offensive line, tight end should definitely take a back seat in the early rounds.

Perhaps Denver could invest in a relatively cheap free agent—maybe even Flacco’s former teammate in Baltimore, Nick Boyle—to bridge the gap before investing more heavily in the position in the future.

Answering Some Questions Following Joe Flacco’s Trade to the Denver Broncos

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When news broke on Wednesday afternoon that Joe Flacco had been traded to the Denver Broncos, panic broke out across Colorado. This isn’t the answer to their quarterback woes they had been hoping for.

To be clear, Flacco isn’t the long-term answer. And he may not even be an upgrade over Case Keenum. But it probably isn’t a transaction that should have a significant impact on the organization—unless John Elway makes the mistake of hanging on to Flacco beyond 2019.

Flacco is overpaid, that’s a given. But so is Case Keenum. Either way, the Broncos were going to be overpaying their quarterback this year. Flacco, however, does not come with any guaranteed money. If he’s terrible in training camp, the Broncos can cut him and just move on. That’s obviously not the plan, but it’s nice to know it’s an option.

Keeping both quarterbacks is not an option, however, as they’re due $39.5 million combined. Assuming the Broncos keep Flacco ($18.5 million) and cut Keenum ($10 million dead cap), they’ll effectively be paying $28.5 million for their starting quarterback, which would be the equivalent of the fourth highest cap hit for a starting quarterback in the league, according to Spotrac.

The best case scenario for the Broncos now would be to trade Keenum, who carries only a $3 million dead cap hit after a trade. If that occurred, Flacco’s salary plus Keenum’s dead cap would be just $500,000 more than they were originally paying Keenum. If that happens (it’s unlikely, but plausible), the Flacco trade becomes a lot easier to justify.

Regardless of how the financial situation works itself, there are still a few question that need to be answered in regards to Flacco’s fit on the field.

 

Can Denver Protect Flacco?

In a clean pocket, Flacco can still be productive. In 2018, despite a weak supporting cast in Baltimore, he completed 67.9 percent of his passes from a clean pocket with an NFL-low 0.4 percent interception rate, according to Sports Info Solutions.

Those numbers shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise because Flacco has typically been able to protect the football—an impressive feat considering the rate at which he throws downfield.

Over the past three season, Flacco has posted an interception rate of 2.13 percent, which ranked 17th out of 37 quarterbacks with at least 500 attempts. It’s nothing special, but you can’t expect to find anything better on the free agent/trade market. The elite quarterbacks just don’t become available that often.

Based on those numbers, it’s reasonable to assume Flacco can protect the ball if the Broncos can protect him. Unfortunately, the latter may be an issue.

According to Sports Info Solutions, Case Keenum was pressured on 30.9 percent of his dropbacks in 2018, the fifth highest rate in the league.

Right tackle Jared Veldheer and center Matt Paradis are both unrestricted free agents this offseason and, partially due to this trade, the Broncos are a little strapped for cash.

In order to put Flacco in the best situation to succeed, they’ll need to find a way to upgrade the offensive line, and they’ll probably have to do it with some cheap replacements.

 

Can Flacco get the ball downfield to Sutton?

One of the reasons the Broncos may view Flacco as a short-term upgrade over Keenum is due to his reputation as a strong-armed quarterback.

It’s definitely fair to praise his arm strength, and at times he’s been effective throwing the ball downfield. However, the numbers indicate this may actually be a weakness in Flacco’s game at this stage of his career.

According to Sports Info Solutions, Flacco has been one of the worst downfield passers over the last three seasons:

It’s fair to blame Flacco’s poor supporting cast for some of those struggles, but even if we measure his success by Sports Info Solution’s on-target pass rate, Flacco ranks as the fifth worst deep-ball passer since 2016. Keenum, meanwhile, has been the fifth most accurate deep-ball passer in that time span.

In fact, looking at 2018 alone, Keenum proved to be a far superior downfield passer and quickly got on the same page as Courtland Sutton. Among receivers who saw at least 20 targets at 20 or more yards downfield, no one received a higher percentage of on-target throws than Sutton (68.2 percent).

 

So is Flacco an upgrade?

The downfield passing numbers definitely call into question Flacco’s potential fit in Denver. But that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to fail.

The Broncos have a strong running game and a good defense. If their goal was to find a quarterback who is better at protecting the ball, maybe Flacco is the right man for the job.

Flacco is in decline, but he isn’t washed up to the point where he doesn’t belong on the field. So it will really all depend on new offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello’s ability to design a game plan that fits both Flacco’s strengths and the team as a whole.

Flacco isn’t going to lead the Broncos to a Super Bowl title, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be an upgrade over Keenum if the offense is designed properly.