Category: Seahawks

Pete Carroll Sets Russell Wilson Up for Failure

As anyone vaguely familiar with the Seattle Seahawks 2018 season knows, Pete Carroll loves to run the ball—and a lot of Seahawks fans aren’t happy about it.

The debate of run versus pass is generating attention in Seattle right now, but it exists across the NFL landscape. It basically boils down to this: old school football minds want to “establish the run” and “impose their will” on the defense. The running game is “smashmouth football” and it “turns boys into men”… blah blah blah.

The problem with all of that nonsense is it sounds better in a movie, coming from a crusty old coach trying to motivate his haphazard high school underdogs than it does when we’re talking about some of the best athletes on the planet. In the real world, data consistently demonstrates that, as long as you have a competent quarterback, your offense needs to be designed around the forward pass.

Five Thirty Eight’s Josh Hermsmeyer very bluntly addressnzed this issue in regards to Carroll’s run habits in his article titled: “You Called a Run on First Down, You’re Already Screwed.”

One of the interesting nuggets in Hermsmeyer’s piece was this note: “The Seahawks called rush-rush-pass 26 percent of the time, a rate 10 percentage points higher than league average.”

Hermsmeyer focused on how the Seahawks run tendencies limited their ability to convert first downs, but this particular note made me wonder about its impact on Russell Wilson. If the Seahawks are running the ball on first and second down at a disturbingly high rate, that likely means Wilson is attempting a disproportionate amount of his passes in unfavorable third-and-long situations.

As it turns out, this theory was correct. According to Sports Info Solutions, among 36 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks this season, only three dropped back to pass in situations of third-and-five (or more) at a higher rate than Wilson:

The fact that Wilson appears on this list with Jeff Driskel and a crew of rookies is telling. In order to attempt this many passes in third-and-long, your coaching staff needs to be actively trying to keep the ball out of the quarterback’s hand until it becomes absolutely necessary. That makes perfect sense if you’re the Bengals and are just running out the clock on a lost season with Driskel, or you have an underdeveloped rookie taking snaps. But why on earth would the Seahawks be actively trying to prevent Wilson from throwing in more favorable situations?

Nearly a quarter of Wilson’s total dropbacks occurred in these scenarios where the defense knew, with a high degree of certainty, that he was going to drop back to pass—which obviously creates a higher degree of difficulty for Wilson.

Putting Wilson in these situations also impacts the Seahawks playcalling ability (or at least their perceived ability to draw from the entire playbook). For example, in Wilson’s 121 dropbacks on third-and-five-or-more, only three were play action, according to Sports Info Solutions. Wilson had an Independent Quarterback Rating of 137.1 on play-action passes this year, per SIS, the second highest rate in the league behind Drew Brees, yet Carroll’s run-heavy approach took that option away from them on nearly a quarter of his dropbacks.

Carroll has previously been an open-minded coach in many ways, so there is the potential for him to modernize his offense in 2019. But if he doesn’t, it appears as though Seattle is missing out on the best of Russell Wilson.

Bruce Irvin excelling as pass rush specialist

Seattle Seahawks 1st-round pick Bruce Irvin recorded his first career sack on Sunday against the Cowboys and is developing into an asset as a pass rush specialist.

Through two games Irvin has been used as a pass rusher on 53 of his 64 snaps (82.8%).

While Irvin has done a nice job in this role (he’s recorded a sack, hit or pressure on 9.1% of his pass rush plays), their use of him in this role begs the question: is it worth drafting a pass-rush specialist in the 1st round?

No matter how well Irvin performs in this role, the fact remains he’s a part-time player. He certainly hasn’t looked like a bust, but until he develops into a a true three-down lineman it will be hard to give the Seahawks a strong grade for their selection.

Robert Turbin may start opener

Seattle Seahawks rookie Robert Turbin may be forced into a starting role for his NFL debut as Marshawn Lynch is reportedly questionable for their opener against the Cardinals.

Turbin may start on Sunday

The Seahawks also have Leon Washington and Kregg Lumpkin on the roster, but Tubrin would be the best fit in terms of replacing Lynch. He’s a physical runner with a similar build to Lynch and should be able to step in fairly seamlessly – at least for one game.

This could prove to be a critical division showdown, so it will be disappointing if Lynch is out, but it could also be a great opportunity to give Turbin some valuable playing time early in the season.

Bobby Wagner set to start for Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks 2nd-round pick Bobby Wagner is expected to take over the starting role at middle linebacker. He had been in a close competition with veteran Barrett Ruud, but the Seahawks dealt Ruud to New Orleans on Tuesday. Wagner’s backup will be veterans Heath Farwell and/or Matt McCoy.

Wagner was a four-year starter at Utah State and a team captain during his junior and senior years. Pete Carroll has reportedly been impressed with his work ethic and it sounds as though he’s at the beginning of a promising career in Seattle.

Russell Wilson favorite to win job in Seattle?

Seattle Seahawks 3rd-round pick Russell Wilson has been named the starter of their third preseason game. Typically this game is reserved for the starting quarterback to see significant playing time, but the Seahawks will be giving it to Wilson to make his first start. Matt Flynn started Seattle’s first two games.

So does this make Wilson the favorite to start the regular season?

Not necessarily. Pete Carroll hasn’t handled this quarterback competition by the books, so it’s possible he just wants to give Wilson a shot with the first-team offense. Through the first two weeks Carrall had been giving one day of first-team reps to Tarvaris Jackson and the rest to Flynn. However, Jackson has yet to appear in a preseason game.

Everything about this competition has been strange, so it’s tough to assume anything at this point. Despite Wilson getting the call this weekend, it could very well still be Flynn’s job to lose.