To be clear, Flacco isn’t the long-term answer. And he may not even be an upgrade over Case Keenum. But it probably isn’t a transaction that should have a significant impact on the organization—unless John Elway makes the mistake of hanging on to Flacco beyond 2019.
Flacco is overpaid, that’s a given. But so is Case Keenum. Either way, the Broncos were going to be overpaying their quarterback this year. Flacco, however, does not come with any guaranteed money. If he’s terrible in training camp, the Broncos can cut him and just move on. That’s obviously not the plan, but it’s nice to know it’s an option.
Keeping both quarterbacks is not an option, however, as they’re due $39.5 million combined. Assuming the Broncos keep Flacco ($18.5 million) and cut Keenum ($10 million dead cap), they’ll effectively be paying $28.5 million for their starting quarterback, which would be the equivalent of the fourth highest cap hit for a starting quarterback in the league, according to Spotrac.
The best case scenario for the Broncos now would be to trade Keenum, who carries only a $3 million dead cap hit after a trade. If that occurred, Flacco’s salary plus Keenum’s dead cap would be just $500,000 more than they were originally paying Keenum. If that happens (it’s unlikely, but plausible), the Flacco trade becomes a lot easier to justify.
Regardless of how the financial situation works itself, there are still a few question that need to be answered in regards to Flacco’s fit on the field.
Can Denver Protect Flacco?
In a clean pocket, Flacco can still be productive. In 2018, despite a weak supporting cast in Baltimore, he completed 67.9 percent of his passes from a clean pocket with an NFL-low 0.4 percent interception rate, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Those numbers shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise because Flacco has typically been able to protect the football—an impressive feat considering the rate at which he throws downfield.
Over the past three season, Flacco has posted an interception rate of 2.13 percent, which ranked 17th out of 37 quarterbacks with at least 500 attempts. It’s nothing special, but you can’t expect to find anything better on the free agent/trade market. The elite quarterbacks just don’t become available that often.
Based on those numbers, it’s reasonable to assume Flacco can protect the ball if the Broncos can protect him. Unfortunately, the latter may be an issue.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Case Keenum was pressured on 30.9 percent of his dropbacks in 2018, the fifth highest rate in the league.
Right tackle Jared Veldheer and center Matt Paradis are both unrestricted free agents this offseason and, partially due to this trade, the Broncos are a little strapped for cash.
In order to put Flacco in the best situation to succeed, they’ll need to find a way to upgrade the offensive line, and they’ll probably have to do it with some cheap replacements.
Can Flacco get the ball downfield to Sutton?
One of the reasons the Broncos may view Flacco as a short-term upgrade over Keenum is due to his reputation as a strong-armed quarterback.
It’s definitely fair to praise his arm strength, and at times he’s been effective throwing the ball downfield. However, the numbers indicate this may actually be a weakness in Flacco’s game at this stage of his career.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Flacco has been one of the worst downfield passers over the last three seasons:
It’s fair to blame Flacco’s poor supporting cast for some of those struggles, but even if we measure his success by Sports Info Solution’s on-target pass rate, Flacco ranks as the fifth worst deep-ball passer since 2016. Keenum, meanwhile, has been the fifth most accurate deep-ball passer in that time span.
In fact, looking at 2018 alone, Keenum proved to be a far superior downfield passer and quickly got on the same page as Courtland Sutton. Among receivers who saw at least 20 targets at 20 or more yards downfield, no one received a higher percentage of on-target throws than Sutton (68.2 percent).
So is Flacco an upgrade?
The downfield passing numbers definitely call into question Flacco’s potential fit in Denver. But that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to fail.
The Broncos have a strong running game and a good defense. If their goal was to find a quarterback who is better at protecting the ball, maybe Flacco is the right man for the job.
Flacco is in decline, but he isn’t washed up to the point where he doesn’t belong on the field. So it will really all depend on new offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello’s ability to design a game plan that fits both Flacco’s strengths and the team as a whole.
Flacco isn’t going to lead the Broncos to a Super Bowl title, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be an upgrade over Keenum if the offense is designed properly.
Undrafted free agent Case Keenum is making a strong impression in Houston Texans camp.