Tag: Todd Gurley

Patriots May Struggle to Stop Rams Rushing Attack

Patriots, Rams
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One of the reasons the Rams rushing attack is so effective—aside from simply the talent of Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson—is Sean McVay’s ability to manipulate the defense with his offensive formations.

The Rams ran the ball from 11 personnel (three receivers, one running back, one tight end) on 82.8 percent of their rushing attempts this season, the highest rate in the league according to Sports Info Solutions. No other team was above 66.3 percent (the Dolphins).

The benefit to this strategy is that it limits the defense’s ability to load the box with eight or more defenders.

The Rams successfully used this strategy to become the only team in the league that was able to earn a positive gain in Expected Points Added (EPA) on over 50 percent of their rushing plays this season.

On the other side of the ball, stopping the run has been an area where the Patriots defense has had some issues.

According to Sports Info Solutions, the Patriots allowed 5.16 yards per attempt versus 11 personnel this season, which ranked 18th. But perhaps more concerning for the Patriots is the fact that they allowed 2.67 yards before contact per attempt versus 11 personnel, ranking 27th in the league.

This stat indicates that Gurley and Anderson should have some running room against New England’s defense, and we’ve seen throughout the season that both running backs have the ability to break off long runs once they’re given some room to sneak through the line of scrimmage.

Of course, the health of Gurley could complicate matters for the Rams. Despite McVay’s claim that Gurley’s lack of playing time against the Saints was due to the “flow of the game,” it’s hard to believe given the discrepancy in usage between Gurley and Anderson:

The Rams should be able to create running room for Gurley or Anderson, but having the more explosive Gurley on the field would certainly benefit Los Angeles’ quest for a Super Bowl title.

Can Saints Stop Rams Unique Rushing Attack?

Rams, Saints
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The New Orleans Saints wrapped up the regular season with the NFL’s second-ranked rushing defense, giving up just 1,283 yards on 3.6 yards per attempt. That would seemingly put them in good position to shut down the Los Angeles Rams new-found two-headed monster of Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson. However, the Rams present a unique challenge for defenses due to the formations they use on offense.

According to Sports Info Solutions, 82.8 percent of the Rams rushing attempts this season came from three-receiver sets. No other team in the league generated a rate higher than 69.0 percent (the Dolphins), and the other 31 teams averaged just 50.4 percent of their attempts from three-receiver formations.

The benefit of running the ball in a three-receiver formation is it limits the defense’s ability to load the box.

When defenses are able to load the box against the Rams, they’re able to slow down their rushing attack. Los Angeles averaged just 3.4 yards per attempt when running into a box with eight or more defenders, per Sports Info Solutions. However, only 17.0 percent of the Rams rushing attempts came versus eight or more men in the box, the fourth lowest rate in the league.

The Rams unique approach to the run game presents a problem for most teams, but the Saints appear to be qualified to stop it. While their run defense was slightly worse versus three-receiver formations, they maintained their rank as the No. 2 defense, giving up just 3.98 yards per attempt.

The two teams met earlier this year, so the Saints will have some familiarity with the Rams rushing attack. However, since New Orleans jumped out to a 35-13 lead in the first half, the Rams were forced to abandon the run game early. Gurley finished with just 68 yards on 13 carries, all 13 from a three-receiver formation.

Of course, none of these stats account for the fact that defensive tackle Sheldon Rankin is out with a torn Achilles tendon. His absence may create a weakness the Rams can exploit. But if New Orleans is adequately able to replace him, they could potentially slow down the Rams rushing attack in a way few teams have done this season.

Todd Gurley Scouting Report

Scouting Reports - 2015
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Todd Gurley RB Georgia #3
Ht: 6’1″
Wt: 231

[level-scouting-reports]

Size/Athleticism: Impressive size. Added weight during his career and has tuned into a bruising downhill runner. Former track star.

Vision: Adequate vision, but he misses opportunities bounce runs to the outside in favor of pounding it up the middle too often. He plays like he loves contact, and turns down opportunities for easy yardage in favor of trying to knock out a defender (which sometimes works due to his strength, but adds to the wear and tear on his body).

Power: A true downhill runner. Looks for contact. Rarely goes down on first contact.

Speed/Agility: Straight-line speed is adequate, but not enough to run away from defensive backs consistently. Balance could be improved. He runs high and doesn’t have the fluid hips and ankles to make defenders whiff in the open field. Quick feet when moving through traffic near the line of scrimmage, but just doesn’t have the fluid athleticism to make those adjustments when moving close to full speed.

Passing Game: Plenty of experience as a receiver out of the backfield (65 career receptions). Shows reliables hands and can even reel in some acrobatic receptions. Strong enough to be an asset in pass protection but still developing technique.

Intangibles: Suspended for four games in 2014 for taking money for autographs.

Durability: Serious durability concerns due to ankle, knee, hip and thigh injuries. Missed time with an ankle injury early in 2013 season, which never fully healed and was still bothering him during 2014 offseason. Also played through a thigh injury in 2013. Suffered torn ACL (left knee) in November, 2014 and missed remainder of season.

[/level-scouting-reports]

Todd Gurley Chart

Overview: Gurley is a powerful downhill runner with a long history of injuries, casting serious doubt on his NFL future. His quickness and agility are already an area of slight concern, so his recent ACL injury is definitely reason for teams to question his ability to excel at the next level. While he obviously has workhorse potential, I would be nervous about spending a high pick on a runner with his skill set and injury history.